[Basta-users] Simulations and results in Basta analyses

[Fernando Colchero]

Hi Ricardo,

  Sorry for the late reply. It is possible that the lack of convergence is related to the small sample sizes and the short duration of the sampling. You can check the trace plots and see if it’s not converging because it needs to run for more iterations or because the model cannot actually find the parameters. Just type:

   plot(yourOutput)

  which should produce the trace plots for the mortality parameters. 

   About your other question, BaSTA does not provide a single numerical value for the mortality (or survival) since it estimates age-specific mortality. I hope this helps clarifying your doubts. Let me know if you need more help.

Best,

   Fernando

Fernando Colchero
Associate Professor
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science
Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging

Tlf.               +45 65 50 23 24
Email           colchero at imada.sdu.dk <mailto:colchero at imada.sdu.dk>
Web             www.sdu.dk/staff/colchero <http://www.sdu.dk/staff/colchero>
Pers. web    www.colchero.com <http://www.sdu.dk/staff/colchero>
Adr.              Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense, Dk

University of Southern Denmark

> On 3 Apr 2018, at 23:55, Ricardo Figueroa <rfh_diablosmana at hotmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Dear Basta users.
> I am beginning to explore Basta in order to analyze the survival parameters of a rattlesnake. I have a dataset of 53 individuals surveyed for 8 consecutive months. I’ve made some preliminary analyses and I’ve got two questions:
> 1) The simulations of the models I’ve made failed to converge. I ran the analyses with 4 simulations as shown in the tutorial, and I wonder if more simulations could lead to convergence. How many simulations would you recommend me to run?
> 2) I have a little bit of trouble with the interpretation of the results. Basta provides the parameters of the mortality function used in the model, as I understand but, is there a way in which Basta provides the user a specific numerical value of the survival and mortality proportion?
>  
> Thanks in advance
> Ricardo Figueroa
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