[Rsiena-help] checking for correctly predicted network evolution

[Mark Manger]

Dear fellow RSiena users,

I tend to apply RSiena to problems that in Political Science are usually treated with binary dependent variable models, most commonly logit models.

With logit models, because it is relatively simple, people often calculate a “percentage correctly predicted” of outcomes, and then perhaps list which specific outcomes were over- or underpredicted. This is generally (perhaps wrongly) considered as a good check of the explanatory power of a model, and frequently requested by reviewers.

I’m wondering if it would be possible to do the same in RSiena — predict (or rather simulate the networks given my estimated parameters), compare with the actually observed networks, and calculate a percentage correctly predicted in each wave?

—Mark


Mark S. Manger
Assistant Professor of Political Economy and Global Affairs
Munk School of Global Affairs & Department of Political Science | University of Toronto
Observatory Site | 315 Bloor Street West | Room 212
Toronto, ON   M5S 0A7
Phone: 416-946-8927 | Fax: 416-946-8877
mark.manger at utoronto.ca<mailto:mark.manger at utoronto.ca>
www.munkschool.utoronto.ca/mga<http://www.munkschool.utoronto.ca/mga>

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