From noreply at r-forge.r-project.org Mon Jun 26 16:29:28 2017 From: noreply at r-forge.r-project.org (noreply at r-forge.r-project.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2017 16:29:28 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [Blotter-commits] r1750 - pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings Message-ID: <20170626142928.D200A188FA9@r-forge.r-project.org> Author: braverock Date: 2017-06-26 16:29:28 +0200 (Mon, 26 Jun 2017) New Revision: 1750 Modified: pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.Rmd pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.pdf Log: update to current doc Modified: pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.Rmd =================================================================== --- pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.Rmd 2017-05-01 13:34:02 UTC (rev 1749) +++ pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.Rmd 2017-06-26 14:29:28 UTC (rev 1750) @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ --- title: Developing & Backtesting Systematic Trading Strategies author: Brian G. Peterson +date: "updated `r format(Sys.time(), '%d %B %Y')`" bibliography: stat_process.bib output: tufte::tufte_handout @@ -12,8 +13,8 @@ keywords: quantitative trading, backtest, quantitative strategy, scientific method subject: quantitative trading, backtest, quantitative strategy, scientific method -footer: Copyright 2014-2016 Brian G. Peterson CC-BY-NC-SA. -copyright: Copyright 2014-2016 Brian G. Peterson CC-BY-NC-SA. +footer: Copyright 2014-2017 Brian G. Peterson CC-BY-NC-SA. +copyright: Copyright 2014-2017 Brian G. Peterson CC-BY-NC-SA. abstract: Analysts and portfolio managers face many challenges in developing new systematic trading systems. This paper provides a detailed, repeatable process to aid in evaluating new ideas, developing those ideas into testable hypotheses, measuring results in comparable ways, and avoiding and measuring the ever-present risks of over-fitting. ^[ *Back-testing. I hate it ?- it's just optimizing over history. You never see a bad back-test. Ever. In any strategy.* - Josh Diedesch[- at Diedesch2014] ] @@ -1706,7 +1707,7 @@ - modifying existing expectations - track the number of trials - how do you define a 'trial'? -- CCSV sampling +- CSCV sampling - combinatorially symmetric cross validation "generate $S/2$ testing sets of size $T/2$ by recombining the $S$ slices of the overall sample of size $T$. Modified: pkg/quantstrat/sandbox/backtest_musings/strat_dev_process.pdf =================================================================== (Binary files differ)