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Dear Christopher,<br>
<br>
there are probably multiple ways to do what you're describing, but I
guess your modelling choices also depend on what you want to
achieve. Is it the population trends you are interested in, and/or
the population structure of non-flowering, male and female flowering
individuals? If you are just interested in seed production and
assume that pollen is not limiting, a size-dependent
female-flowering probability in the F matrix might be enough. You
would then have a size-structured model and no need for additional
states. I guess you could even translate the stable size
distribution to proportions males and females. However, if you do
need males as a state, the options you describe should work: either
model a series of conditional probabilities as functions of the
previous state and size of individuals, or use multinomial models.
The number of needed parameters will increase rapidly if you want
both size and state transitions to depend on both previous size and
previous stage. Or are you interested to include 'marriage
functions' as well? Not sure if you could include those with just
size as a continuous state variable and size-dependent male and
female flowering probabilities. Anyone?<br>
<br>
As for IPMpack: we now do accomodate simple age x size IPMs, but I
don't think you can make such a complicated size x flowering stage
IPM with IPMpack functions only. Probably (as often when you want to
include very complex life histories) you will have to develop code
to construct your own IPM. However, it is often very useful to use
bits and pieces of IPMpack to achieve this (e.g. by using IPMpack
functions to create survival, growth and fecundity objects for
subsets of individuals). <br>
<br>
best wishes,<br>
Eelke<br>
<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 09-Jun-14 8:03 PM, Christopher
Heckel wrote:<br>
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<p>Hello all,</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><span dir="ltr"><font color="black"
face="Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif" size="3"><span
style="font-size:12pt;background-color:white;">I would
like to use IPMs to model the population dynamics of a
plant that is not only an iteroparous perennial, but
also exhibits size-dependent gender switching.
Generally for this species (<em>Arisaema triphyllum</em>)
plants progress from non-flowering to male-flowering
to female-flowering over the course of several years
depending mainly on biomass accumulation. However,
plants also can retrogress to previous states; for
example, a plant that was female in year t could
return as male in year t+1.
</span></font></span></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>My questions:</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>1. I think I need to set this up as a stage-size-dependent
IPM but I am unsure how to allow individuals to move back
and forth between stages.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>2. I can use polytomous logistic regression to find
size-based transition probabilities among the three stages
with greater power compared to a series of binomial logistic
regressions.</p>
<p> a. Is polytomous log-reg appropriate for this?</p>
<p> b. Could IPMpack tools handle this?</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Thanks to all for any suggestions to help get me moving
forward.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Christopher Heckel<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>PhD candidate<br>
</p>
<p>University of Pittsburgh<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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