<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:10pt"><div><div class="msg-body inner undoreset" role="main" aria-label="Message body" style="margin-top: 25px; margin-right: 24px; margin-bottom: 22px; margin-left: 29px; word-wrap: break-word; overflow-x: auto; overflow-y: hidden; color: rgb(69, 69, 69); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; "><div id="yiv237683995"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; "><div><span style="font-family: times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Hi all,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Thank you so much for your willingness to help! Here are some additional questions, as derived by your useful comments:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times, serif;
font-size: 12pt; "><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">>This is not necessarily the case, and (in my opinion) is one of the main arguments for using an ensemble approach to >forecasting species distributions onto new time period or locations.</span></div><div style="font-size: 10pt; "><div style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: times, serif; "><br>>However, as recommended by Brenna, this is not something really recommended anymore as ensemble forecasts are >much more robust than the best model. <br><br>>We let the function BestModel for people who wants to quickly extract which is the best model for a given data but >this is something which should be applied when extrapolating the models into new areas or time. </div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div
class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">> Ensemble.Forcasting try to give you a consensus modeling projection, that means that every selected model will be >contribute (more or less depending on arguments given) to a consensus and supposed better projection. <br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br>From the comments above I can see that what you suggest is to avoid using the model that predicted best my already known localities <span style="font-size: 12pt; ">for projections onto other areas or into the future</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; ">; I should use ensemble forecasting instead, right?</span></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif;
font-size: 12pt; "><br>Can you please confirm that I have understood all steps of the methodology:</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">To initialise:</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">1) I load the file with the coordinates, variables and presence/absence table of my species;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">2) I use <span style="font-style: italic; ">Initial.State()</span> to initialise my dataset;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family:
'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">3) I run the <span style="font-style: italic; ">Models() </span>function by choosing the models I want and by setting different parameters;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">To predict:</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">1) For future predictions: I load a file with the <span style="font-weight: bold; ">same coordinates</span> as the current file and with the future values of the variables/ For projections in other areas: I load a file with <span style="font-weight: bold; ">different </span>coordinates
and with the values of the variables observed on the new coordinates;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">2) I use <span style="font-style: italic; ">Ensemble.Forecasting()</span> setting as <span style="font-style: italic; ">Proj.name</span> my new dataset;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">3) I analyse the outputs;</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Is the above procedure correct?</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new
roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Cheers,</div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Andreas</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>