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<div style="direction: ltr;font-family: Tahoma;color: #000000;font-size: 10pt;">Hi Andreas - you are on the right track, except for the prediction part:<br>
<br>
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To predict:</div>
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1) For future predictions: I load a file with the <span style="font-weight: bold;">same coordinates</span> as the current file and with the future values of the variables/ For projections in other areas: I load a file with <span style="font-weight: bold;">different </span>coordinates
and with the values of the variables observed on the new coordinates;<br>
<br>
<font size="2"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">**Yes.</span></font><br>
<br>
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2) I use <span style="font-style: italic;">Ensemble.Forecasting()</span> setting as <span style="font-style: italic;">Proj.name</span> my new dataset;<br>
<br>
<font size="2"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">**No - first use Projection() to project your models onto your current conditions, future conditions, new area, etc. Name your projections with "Proj.name" within the Projection() call. Then you can use those
Proj.names in Ensemble.Forecasting(). You can also just use Projection() and then create the ensemble/consensus model yourself if you like (in R or a GIS).<br>
<br>
Hope that helps!<br>
Brenna<br>
<br>
PS - a<font size="2">nother good paper, in addition to the ones listed by Wilfried, is:<br style="font-family: Tahoma;">
<font size="2"><br style="font-family: Tahoma;">
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<![endif]--><font style="font-family: Tahoma;" size="2"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Grenouillet
G, Buisson L, Casajus N, Lek S (2011) Ensemble modelling of species distribution: the effects of geographical and environmental ranges. Ecography 34:9–17</span><br style="font-family: Tahoma;">
<br style="font-family: Tahoma;">
<span style="font-family: Tahoma;">In this paper they find that the consensus (average) model has better predictive accuracy (based on AUC) on current data than any of the single models separately. I have also found this to be the case in my use of ensemble
modeling so far.<br>
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<div style="direction: ltr;" id="divRpF116573"><font color="#000000" face="Tahoma" size="2"><b>From:</b> biomod-commits-bounces@r-forge.wu-wien.ac.at [biomod-commits-bounces@r-forge.wu-wien.ac.at] on behalf of Andreas Soteriades [andreassot10@yahoo.com]<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, February 20, 2012 9:38 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> biomod-commits@lists.r-forge.r-project.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Biomod-commits] Biomod-commits Digest, Vol 34, Issue 15<br>
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<div><span style="font-family: times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hi all,</span></div>
<div><span style="font-family: times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-family: times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thank you so much for your willingness to help! Here are some additional questions, as derived by your useful comments:</span></div>
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</span></div>
<div><span style="font-family: times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">>This is not necessarily the case, and (in my opinion) is one of the main arguments for using an ensemble approach to >forecasting species distributions onto new time period or locations.</span></div>
<div style="font-size: 10pt;">
<div style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: times,serif;"><br>
>However, as recommended by Brenna, this is not something really recommended anymore as ensemble forecasts are >much more robust than the best model. <br>
<br>
>We let the function BestModel for people who wants to quickly extract which is the best model for a given data but >this is something which should be applied when extrapolating the models into new areas or time. </div>
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<div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman','new york',times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
> Ensemble.Forcasting try to give you a consensus modeling projection, that means that every selected model will be >contribute (more or less depending on arguments given) to a consensus and supposed better projection. <br>
</div>
<div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman','new york',times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<br>
>From the comments above I can see that what you suggest is to avoid using the model that predicted best my already known localities <span style="font-size: 12pt;">for projections onto other areas or into the future</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">; I should
use ensemble forecasting instead, right?</span></div>
<div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman','new york',times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<br>
Can you please confirm that I have understood all steps of the methodology:</div>
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To initialise:</div>
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1) I load the file with the coordinates, variables and presence/absence table of my species;</div>
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2) I use <span style="font-style: italic;">Initial.State()</span> to initialise my dataset;</div>
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3) I run the <span style="font-style: italic;">Models() </span>function by choosing the models I want and by setting different parameters;</div>
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To predict:</div>
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1) For future predictions: I load a file with the <span style="font-weight: bold;">same coordinates</span> as the current file and with the future values of the variables/ For projections in other areas: I load a file with <span style="font-weight: bold;">different </span>coordinates
and with the values of the variables observed on the new coordinates;</div>
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2) I use <span style="font-style: italic;">Ensemble.Forecasting()</span> setting as <span style="font-style: italic;">Proj.name</span> my new dataset;</div>
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3) I analyse the outputs;</div>
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Is the above procedure correct?</div>
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Cheers,</div>
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<div class="yiv237683995yui_3_2_0_30_132973242272161" style="font-family: 'times new roman','new york',times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
Andreas</div>
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