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<![endif]--> </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Dear BIOMODers</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">I wonder if you can help
with a few questions about the predictive accuracy of models.</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">1.For the consensus
predictions from Ensemble.Forecasting(), the Manual says that the test is
performed on the calibration data.<span> </span>So,
to confirm, the first column of $test.results reports the ROC scores using all
the data, and the following columns the ROC scores using the calibration data
for each repetition? <span> </span>(there was a post a
few months ago about the possibility of these tests being done on testing data
instead, but I am assuming that the current version still uses calibration
data)</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2. The help for the Ensemble.Forecasting()
function says that the test scores “ are obtained by applying the same ensemble
computation on the current predictions as on the future forecasts, and compared
with the data input for that species (using the Roc evaluation method)”. So,
again to confirm, are they calculated by running new ROC evaluations on the
consensus projections? </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">3. For the Models()
function, the evaluation.results output for each species, as far as I understand,
gives in the last columns of $Spp_full the sensitivity and specificity calculated
using all the data (the full model). </span>Is it fair then to expect that calculating
the Sens-Spec from the observed data and the binary predictions using the total
data should lead to similar results as the Sens-Spec from the Models?<span> </span>(for presence-only data species I would use
the pseudo-absence data instead of the observed data). <span><span></span><span lang="EN-US">When I try these calculations
for the individual model projections, I get similar values of specificity but lower
values of sensitivity; <span> </span>and when I try it
for the mean, weighted mean and median consensus projections I get
unrealistically low values of sensitivity.</span></span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">And two last ones still about
the Ensemble.Forecasting() function:</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">4. The Total_consensus_proj.name output generates
a “general ensemble forecast across all the runs” for each consensus method. Whether
this ensemble takes into account the final models as well as the repetitions
depends on the final.model.out argument, I think – what is the default for this
argument?</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">5. In the consensus_spp_proj.name outputs, the
second dimension includes the full model and the repetitions. Does this full
model refer to ensembles built with the total data only or with total data plus
the repetitions? <span> </span>If the latter, is
there no output with the consensus predictions based on the total data only?</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Hope this is not too long or unclear - many
thanks </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: 150%;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Raquel </span></p>
<p>Raquel A. Garcia<br />
Biodiversity and Global Change Lab<br />
www.biochange-lab.eu/<!--end_signature--></p>