<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Hello Cliff,<div><br></div><div> Looking at the life table you sent, although between ages 0 and 4 there seems to be declining mortality, at age 5 all of the remaining 33 individuals die. If there were negative senescence over the entire life course, then a few individuals should have lived much longer, which is not the case. Maybe in this case a better model should be a Gompertz with bathtub shape.</div><div><br></div><div> Best,</div><div><br></div><div> Fernando<br><div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">______________________________________________</div><div><div> </div><div>Fernando Colchero</div><div><br></div><div>Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research</div><div>Konrad Zuse Str. 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany</div><div>Tel: +49 (0) 381 2081 113</div><div>Fax: +49 (0) 381 2081 529</div><div><div>E-mail: <a href="mailto:Colchero@demogr.mpg.de">Colchero@demogr.mpg.de</a></div></div><div>______________________________________________</div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span>
</div>
<br><div><div>On Nov 16, 2011, at 12:00 AM, Cliff Cunningham wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Dear Basta,<div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Basta isn't finding declining mortality in a sample dataset where the lifetable output by Basta shows declining qx for 4 years in a row (0.78, 0.57, 0.36,0.29). I input a negative value for b1 (beta) as a prior, but it still found a positive Gompertz fit. </div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Here is the lifetable and the Gompertz parameters. I'm not sure where the signal for increasing mortality comes from here. I am using your default.basta file when I run these. The result is the same with the Makeham shape.</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="780" style="border-collapse:
collapse;width:780pt">
<!--StartFragment-->
<colgroup><col width="65" span="12" style="width:65pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="2" width="130" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan;
width:130pt">Coefficients:</td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="7" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Estimate<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>StdErr Lower95%CI Upper95%CI SerAutocor UpdateRate PotScaleReduc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b0</td>
<td align="right">-1.444</td>
<td align="right">0.17489</td>
<td align="right">-1.788</td>
<td align="right">-1.1039</td>
<td align="right">0.45801</td>
<td align="right">0.6506</td>
<td align="right">1.0003</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b1</td>
<td align="right">0.31</td>
<td align="right">0.07555</td>
<td align="right">0.1642</td>
<td align="right">0.459</td>
<td align="right">0.47704</td>
<td align="right">0.6506</td>
<td align="right">1.0008</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">pi</td>
<td align="right">0.4108</td>
<td align="right">0.03974</td>
<td align="right">0.3366</td>
<td align="right">0.4901</td>
<td align="right">-0.01783</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0.9996</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="2" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan">Convergence:</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="5" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan">Appropriate
convergence reached for all parameters.</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">DIC:</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">591.5485</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="7" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan">>
MakeLifeTable(FemalesDecSimulation79onlyBrthsAg0GOMak$Xq[1,], ax = 0.5, n =
1)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="6" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>StartAge EndAge<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>lx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>dx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>mx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>ax<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>qx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>px<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Lx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Tx<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>ex</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">768</td>
<td align="right">601</td>
<td align="right">1.2855615</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
<td align="right">0.7825521</td>
<td align="right">0.2174479</td>
<td align="right">467.5</td>
<td align="right">702</td>
<td align="right">0.9140625</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">2</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">167</td>
<td align="right">95</td>
<td align="right">0.7949791</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
<td align="right">0.5688623</td>
<td align="right">0.4311377</td>
<td align="right">119.5</td>
<td align="right">234.5</td>
<td align="right">1.4041916</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">3</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">72</td>
<td align="right">26</td>
<td align="right">0.440678</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
<td align="right">0.3611111</td>
<td align="right">0.6388889</td>
<td align="right">59</td>
<td align="right">115</td>
<td align="right">1.5972222</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">4</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
<td align="right">46</td>
<td align="right">13</td>
<td align="right">0.3291139</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
<td align="right">0.2826087</td>
<td align="right">0.7173913</td>
<td align="right">39.5</td>
<td align="right">56</td>
<td align="right">1.2173913</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" align="right" style="height:15.0pt">5</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">33</td>
<td align="right">33</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">16.5</td>
<td align="right">16.5</td>
<td align="right">0.5</td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table><br></div><div><br></div><div><div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>All the best!</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Cliff Cunningham</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"> Professor</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Biology Department</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Duke University</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> 130 Science Drive</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Durham NC 27708<br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Phone 919-660-7356<br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><a href="http://www.biology.duke.edu/cunningham">http://www.biology.duke.edu/cunningham</a></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br class="khtml-block-placeholder"></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
</div>
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