<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Hi Cliff,<div><br></div><div> From what I understand your study started in 1979, so I'm not sure why you want to set up the capture history matrix to start in 1978.</div><div><br></div><div> The model is running through, but it cannot calculate the life table if all individuals were born before the study, since BaSTA will only use non-truncated individuals to build the life table. That is why in your second run BaSTA only uses a fraction of your records; it uses only individuals born during the study. </div><div><br></div><div> The Gompertz will not start at 0 mortality, since the b0 parameter (what demographers call 'a' parameter) will never be equal to 0. </div><div><br></div><div> Your problem, I believe, is that you are dealing with adult individuals (at least 1 year old), all or most of which were born before the study. I would use the argument minAge = 1 to avoid this problem. </div><div><br></div><div> Now, if al your records are from individuals born before the study, then I would run BaSTA with lifetable = FALSE, and then run the CalculateLifeTable function on the resulting Xq. Make sure that you subtract 1 to all the Xq so your age 0 on the life table corresponds to the minimum age.</div><div><br></div><div> Finally, you are interested in finding negative senescence with these data. Gompertz won't be the best option, since you really need very high initial mortality. Use arguments model = "GO" and shape = "Makeham". This combination will allow you to detect negative senescence with very high initial mortality. For this you will need to install the BaSTA version on R-Forge, since we just corrected this.</div><div><br></div><div> I hope this helps. Best,</div><div><br></div><div> Fernando<br><div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">______________________________________________</div><div><div> </div><div>Fernando Colchero</div><div><br></div><div>Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research</div><div>Konrad Zuse Str. 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany</div><div>Tel: +49 (0) 381 2081 113</div><div>Fax: +49 (0) 381 2081 529</div><div><div>E-mail: <a href="mailto:Colchero@demogr.mpg.de">Colchero@demogr.mpg.de</a></div></div><div>______________________________________________</div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span>
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<br><div><div>On Nov 9, 2011, at 12:22 AM, Cliff Cunningham wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div>Dear Basta,</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I get the following error when I run this script:</div><div><br></div><div> Fem1978only <- basta(object = Males.dat$newData, studyStart = 1978, studyEnd = 1982, model="GO" ,burnin=1000 ,niter=10000, nsim=4,parallel=TRUE, ncpus=4)</div><div><br></div><div><div>Survival parameters converged appropriately. </div><div>DIC was calculated</div><div>.Warning messages:</div><div>1: In max(DeathAges, na.rm = TRUE) :</div><div> no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf</div><div>2: In max(wa) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf</div><div>3: In MakeLifeTable(x, ax = 0.5, n = 1) : NAs introduced by coercion</div></div><div>Full script and errors below</div><div><br></div><div>This prevented me from using the out$lifeTable function, but was able to use the</div><div>out$Xq function, and count the 50% deaths.</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> I have 943 individuals of unknown age studied with the Gompertz, all marked in 1978, and followed till 1982</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Of these 773 were only seen the first year of the study (1978), yet basta estimates the first deaths at 3 years of age </div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>The qx for those first deaths at 3 years old is is extremely high, but the qx for year 2 is zero.</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I interpret this absence of deaths in year 2 as being a way to fit the Gompertz mortality curve to the data, starting at 0 mortlity, and going up. If the deaths are reported in year 3, then year 2 has 0 mortality, and goes up rapidly (the first qx is 0.95)</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>This seems incorrect to me: 773 were only seen in year 1, some must have died in year 2. As you can see the pi is 0.94, so you wouldn't expect such a long lag time to report the first deaths. </div><div><br></div><div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="520" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 520pt; position: static; z-index: auto; ">
<!--StartFragment-->
<colgroup><col width="65" span="8" style="width:65pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="7" width="455" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan;
width:455pt"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Estimate<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>StdErr Lower95%CI Upper95%CI SerAutocor
UpdateRate PotScaleReduc</td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b0</td>
<td align="right">-2.3926</td>
<td align="right">0.183197</td>
<td align="right">-2.7062</td>
<td align="right">-2.0079</td>
<td class="xl63">0.62626</td>
<td class="xl63">0.3755</td>
<td class="xl63">1.001</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b1</td>
<td align="right">0.6992</td>
<td align="right">0.052093</td>
<td align="right">0.5881</td>
<td align="right">0.7925</td>
<td class="xl64">0.60219</td>
<td class="xl65">0.3755</td>
<td class="xl66">1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">pi</td>
<td align="right">0.9438</td>
<td align="right">0.009978</td>
<td align="right">0.9223</td>
<td align="right">0.9617</td>
<td class="xl65">0.04917</td>
<td class="xl65">1</td>
<td class="xl66">1.001</td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>When I run the individuals first marked in 1979 in the same population and followed through to 1982, I get a similar pattern of first deaths at age 3, even though 660 of the total 768 individuls were only seen in 1979 and never again, also with extremely high "pi" values of 94%</div><div><br></div><div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="520" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 520pt; position: static; z-index: auto; ">
<!--StartFragment-->
<colgroup><col width="65" span="8" style="width:65pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" colspan="7" width="455" style="height:15.0pt;mso-ignore:colspan;
width:455pt"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Estimate<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>StdErr Lower95%CI Upper95%CI SerAutocor
UpdateRate PotScaleReduc</td>
<td width="65" style="width:65pt"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b0</td>
<td align="right">-2.3926</td>
<td align="right">0.183197</td>
<td align="right">-2.7062</td>
<td align="right">-2.0079</td>
<td class="xl63">0.62626</td>
<td class="xl63">0.3755</td>
<td class="xl63">1.001</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">b1</td>
<td align="right">0.6992</td>
<td align="right">0.052093</td>
<td align="right">0.5881</td>
<td align="right">0.7925</td>
<td class="xl64">0.60219</td>
<td class="xl65">0.3755</td>
<td class="xl66">1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height:15.0pt">
<td height="15" style="height:15.0pt">pi</td>
<td align="right">0.9438</td>
<td align="right">0.00991978</td>
<td align="right">0.9223</td>
<td align="right">0.9617</td>
<td class="xl65">0.04917</td>
<td class="xl65">1</td>
<td class="xl66">1.001</td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>Finally, when I combine the 1978 and 1979 marked individuals, all hell breaks loose. No errors are reported, but the </div><div><br></div><div>Fem78and79$lifeTable command only reveals the life table for the 768 individuals first observed in 1979, even though basta reports that all 1711 individuals were read, and I can see all the ages at death when I use the Fem78and79$Xq command</div><div><br></div><div>This gives individuals marked in 1978 their first deaths at age 3, and individuals marked in 1979 their first deaths at age 2.</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I know this is complicated, but this is a dataset you may want to take a look at, as I consider the output difficult to interpret.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>All the best!</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Cliff Cunningham</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"> Professor</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Biology Department</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Duke University</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "> 130 Science Drive</div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Durham NC 27708<br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Phone 919-660-7356<br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><a href="http://www.biology.duke.edu/cunningham">http://www.biology.duke.edu/cunningham</a></div><div style="font-size: 12px; "><br class="khtml-block-placeholder"></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
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